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Fannie & Freddie, How Much?


Grahame

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Given

Fannie and Freddie - Google News

and the wonderfully reassuring statement

"He admitted that he did not know the final cost to the taxpayer, saying: "In the end, the ultimate cost to the taxpayer will depend on the business results of the GSEs going forward."

Good?, Bad?, Blank Check? We're All Doomed!?

Or will switching on the LHC make it all irrelevant?

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Too early to say, but based on the available info to date it's "bad" and "blank check". A lot depends on what the Bonds and Foreign Exchange markets do in the next while. I'm also waiting for full details on the deal to come out since there's still some things which aren't clear yet, such as how much more MBS crap they're allowed to buy next year, how much crap is in their books, and what their acceptance standards for mortgages will be.

As a rough ballpark figure, costs to the Treasury, that means you, the taxpayer, will be anywhere from $300 billion to several trillion. See here for the summary on Freddie & Fannie.

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Word on Squawk Box this morning from Buffet and Snow was that this was the best possible solution to a bad situation and the S&P futures were up +50. It's obviously very difficult to price this out at this time, but the consensus is that it will cost less than any of the alternatives. Markets seem to agree at this point, but we're still dropping shoes like a centipede.

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