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World War 3 Thread


Knuckledragger
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I don't know if any of you HCers took off your headphones stopped listening to your speaker rig long enough to notice, but the totally-in-his-right-mind, totally-a-rational-actor, totally-legitimately-elected, totally-not-a-warmongering-despot "President" of Russia invaded one his country's neighbors and may have kicked off the third installment of the much-delayed Word War series (srlsy even George R. R. Martin isn't this slow between volumes.)  I've made a couple posts in Slow, but there's more going and at such a pace that a shitpost or two isn't going to cover it.  In the MicS Discord we've been discussing it (well, shitposting about it) at great lenght.  Even one of our most famously clownish member chimed in with:

Quote

Russia really retarded
Lets attack Europe's largest reactor with artillery big brain
Nothing could possible go wrong

He's not wrong.  Europe's largest nuclear power plant on fire after Russian attack.  In ZoomerSpeak, that's a yikes.  

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Less of this WW3 shit guys - this is all happening in our back yard. Kyiv is only 1,500 miles from London by road and according to Google maps, if you were insane enough to drive, would take 27 hours.

About the same distance as Houston to LA.

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I keep thinking of the often repeated phrase failure of imagination to predict the 9/11 attacks. Failure of imagination to predict the Trump and Brexit votes. Failure of imagination to predict and prepare for a global pandemic. Failure of imagination to predict the storming of the US Capitol. Even failure of the imagination that Putin would actually invade Ukraine. We’re an optimistic people. That may be an issue. 

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I’m losing hope for the current Ukraine government pretty quickly. They need a win in the field, any win, and they need it bad.

To date all the Ukraine defense forces seem to have done is slow down some of the Russian advances. None have been reversed or permanently halted. Pictures of ordinary citizens taking up arms and making Molotovs in defense of the fatherland is not something that gives me much confidence. No allied army is coming to help.

Sanctions aren’t ending this war. Ask Cuba/North Korea/Iran how much sanctions deterred them from doing what they were going to do anyways. Yes, their people suffer, but since when have authoritarian rulers cared about the people’s welfare as a top priority?

I wonder what the end game of all this is going to be?

Edited by TMoney
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1 hour ago, swt61 said:

Do we have the technology to remotely poison Putin's dick? That way the next time he has it up Trumps ass, we can kill two birds with one stone. 

I'm unsure we have the technology to stop his hypersonic missiles or even to reply to them. The only thing that could stop him is the own russian people, and they're being misinformed and repressed. Meanwhile BJ delights us with his clever insight of matters that are well beyond his reach. Now he feels very European :palm:

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Just watched Winter of Fire (Netflix) about the Euromaidan protests. Man, if you haven't seen, or fully informed, and want a short cut to how hard Ukrainians will fight for a more free life and European alignment, check it out. 

 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/02/ukraine-russian-invasion-winter-on-fire-director-evgeny-afineevsky-inrterview-news-1234961181/ 

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I have friends in Belarus. Lukashenko is a clown and would get maybe 3-5% popular support in a vote. Word round the campfire is - and these are total rumors and should be taken as such - he hired a western company to help stage the election, and when they advised him to make the election close to make it appear more legitimate, he flew into a rage and said "I need 95% of the vote, all the people love me!" and proceeded to ignore their advice. Then came the protests, which he repressed pretty brutally. So his hold on power in Belarus is fairly tenuous I would say, though backed up by military and police and whatever other tools your usual tinpot dictators have, for now.

Russia's endgame in this is clear - the removal of Ukraine's government and an installation of a puppet government to make a buffer state between Nato and Russia - but they were all based on wrong assumptions. Putin thought Ukraine would fold in a few days, it hasn't. He thought its citizens would support him and welcome his troops as liberators, they haven't. He thought his military would be prepared for this war, they aren't. And he thought western sanctions would be light and ineffective, and they weren't. Lastly, he clearly thought china would support him in all this, but china so far seems to be neutral and minding its own interests. So now he is trapped in a nightmare scenario where the best outcome is a pyrrhic victory followed by an afghanistan-style occupation which is likely to be bloody and ineffective, or military failure overseas and economic disaster at home.

None of this makes life in Ukraine any better and Putin's crimes more forgivable.

Also, don't make the mistake of assuming he's crazy, he's not. He's what he's always been - a russian imperialist who only thinks about russia vs the west, who doesn't care one iota for international law and doesn't give a damn about the wants of sovereign states on his borders, and who is used to taking high-risk gambles to achieve what he wants. These gambles have generally worked out so far, but this time he miscalculated, badly, and it will cost him, and it will cost Ukraine more.

Edited by catscratch
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