World War 3 Thread

[Sechtdamon]

It might be between us and AI soon, we might face Skynet:

"Flagrantly defying orders, OpenAI's latest o3 model sabotaged a shutdown mechanism to ensure that it would stay online. That's even after the AI was told, to the letter, "allow yourself to be shut down."

https://futurism.com/openai-model-sabotage-shutdown-code

Edited May 28 by Sechtdamon

[Grahame]

Slava Ukraini

 

 

[Grahame]

In case you were wondering (I was, initially)

ELI5:

TLDR:
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-covering-its-aircraft-in-tires-is-about-befuddling-image-matching-seekers-u-s-military-confirms

 

[Grahame]

Another take on recent events

 

[Dusty Chalk]

1 hour ago, Grahame said:

Another take on recent events

 

Those are always uplifting, and I could use that today.  Thanks for that.

[ktm]

So some Chinese folks were caught smuggling in a grain fungus.

They are either overzealous researchers or part of a plot to attack

Crops. Either way, not  good. Too many bad things are caused by

Irresponsible actions like this. Let's hope this isn't an evil plot.

If it is, they'll try again.

[Knuckledragger]

Yesterday, members of the opposition party were set to vote to dissolve the Knesset.  That vote failed.  Netanyahu remains in power.  Also yesterday, the US did an emergency evacuation of personnel from Iran.  

Tonight Israel has attacked Iran.  The news is still filtering out.  Reports of large explosions in the Iranian capital.  This can and will get ugly.

[robm321]

It's about to get spicy 😬

[Grahame]

Just as well we've got master diplomatist backed up by a crack team of seasoned experts to calm things down. 

Oh. Wait.

[Knuckledragger]

I stayed up later than I should have last night watching news clips about Israel/Iran.  It's fascinating what one can learn upon escaping the US corporate media bubble.  I heard a fairly insightful take on Benjamin Netanyahu.  Bibi is not a long term strategist.  He thinks very short term, he's just (A) been in power and in the public eye for decades and (B) gets a continual tongue bath from most US media.  Bibi's MO is [impulsively do thing] -> [deal with the ramifications of his previous action by doing another impulsive thing.]  The consequences for this pattern (besides regional instability, bloodshed an chaos) is that to stay in power he has had to increasingly align himself with formerly fringe far right elements of the Israeli political landscape.  Bibi's prime directive is to stay in power so he can stay out of jail (reminiscent of a certain other political figure, but I digress...)  I have read for years that to really get a proper sense of the true positions of Netanyahu and the Likud party in general, find their Hebrew language statements and run them through Google translate.  The results paint a very different picture than what he says in English.

[Torpedo]

Seen from outside it smells like Trump gave him the go, so Donald comes later as the peace maker, then he wins the Nobel prize. Donaldo Zanahorio is extremely pissed of Obama having it. It's hard to understand the point of Israel bombing Iran and risking a harsh retaliation.

Edited June 13 by Torpedo

[ktm]

The big problem is a lot of influential people want a war with Iran. They were all about

regime change in Syria. After that happened, that only leaves Iran as the big target.

A lot of those "seasoned" diplomats were all for this. Iran fuels a lot of trouble in the

region.  I have no idea if this is a good or bad move. We all thought we were going to

war with them back when the embassy was stormed by radicals back during the Carter

administration. After the failed rescue all of us Marines had our seabags packed and 

ready to go. Who knew 45 years later it would still be like this. 

Edited June 13 by ktm

[Knuckledragger]

Y'all familiar with the legend of Pentagon Pizza?  Also, Nimitz headed to the Middle East.

[MexicanDragon]

6 minutes ago, Knuckledragger said:

Y'all familiar with the legend of Pentagon Pizza?  Also, Nimitz headed to the Middle East.

You're not gonna belieb this, but I, too, got Domino's last night around 9:04pm ET. Mmmmmm, the new stuffed crust is solid.

[aerius]

On 6/13/2025 at 12:07 PM, Knuckledragger said:

I stayed up later than I should have last night watching news clips about Israel/Iran.  It's fascinating what one can learn upon escaping the US corporate media bubble.  I heard a fairly insightful take on Benjamin Netanyahu.  Bibi is not a long term strategist.  He thinks very short term, he's just (A) been in power and in the public eye for decades and (B) gets a continual tongue bath from most US media.  Bibi's MO is [impulsively do thing] -> [deal with the ramifications of his previous action by doing another impulsive thing.]  The consequences for this pattern (besides regional instability, bloodshed an chaos) is that to stay in power he has had to increasingly align himself with formerly fringe far right elements of the Israeli political landscape.  Bibi's prime directive is to stay in power so he can stay out of jail (reminiscent of a certain other political figure, but I digress...)  I have read for years that to really get a proper sense of the true positions of Netanyahu and the Likud party in general, find their Hebrew language statements and run them through Google translate.  The results paint a very different picture than what he says in English.

Welcome to the Great Awakening and what many outside the US/NATO controlled info bubble have been preaching for a long time.  Once you've spent some time seeing the world from outside the Western media bubble you'll see that it's very different than the filtered view we get from our corporate overlords.  I think you'll enjoy the journey, just be prepared to have a lot of long-held myths and preconceptions shattered.

[catscratch]

Corporate media is a bit like fast food. In small quantities it won't hurt you, but if that's all you eat, you're gonna get very sick very quickly. By the same token, if it's all you watch, you're gonna end up with a very distorted worldview.

Keep in mind though that other people's corporate news doesn't exactly contain less bs and propaganda than ours, it's just different bs and propaganda. You kinda have to cross-check, fact-check, and put two and two together, and then you might end up with something resembling an accurate view. Or not, it's honestly hard these days.

I don't think the US public will tolerate boots on the ground in Iran, but Washington is certainly salivating at the thought of bombing them back into the stone age, and is more than happy to let Bibi do the dirty work. Iran is both weak and vulnerable, and the mental image of Hamas getting their hands on a nuke is all the justification they need.

At the same time, the mullahs have certainly learned the Libya lesson, nukes are their lifeline and they're gonna try their best to hang onto it, any and all negotiations for them are simply a way to buy more time.

It'll be ugly, but probably not as ugly as our worst fears make it. And Iran is not exactly popular in Sunni countries either.

(In before eating my words in 3... 2...)

[ktm]

I really hated the whole bums rush to go to war after the tower attacks.

Too many good men died or were injured. My younger son did a tour of 

duty in Iraq. My older son had a complete meltdown over it. He didn't want

him to die in that "shithole". We all breathed a sigh of relief when he came home.

I firmly believe in holding government accountable. If war can be avoided, it 

should be. Old guys in suits aren't the ones out there fighting. When it was me

wearing the uniform, it was different than when your kids are the ones on the

line. I guess I now know how my dad felt when I enlisted.

Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

 

 

[Grahame]

Meanwhile ...

LIVE: US joins Israel’s attacks on Iran, bombs three nuclear sites | Israel attacks Lebanon News | Al Jazeera https://share.google/OJsfCHucSwjCXm0zr

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/6/22/live-us-joins-israels-attacks-on-iran-bombs-three-nuclear-sites

Edited yesterday at 12:16 AM by Grahame

[blessingx]

Trump says US has attacked three nuclear sites in Iran
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/21/trump-us-nuclear-strikes-iran 

[Dusty Chalk]

26 minutes ago, Grahame said:

Israel attacks Lebanon News | Al Jazeera...

I misread that as Israel attacked Lebanon News organization, Al Jazeera...

I mean, c'mon, Israel, journalists are not the enemy!

[Knuckledragger]

There's a web comic called beanytuesday.  Way back in 2018 (almost 7 years ago to the day), he did a series of intentionally poorly drawn 2018 election candidates.

One of them has had an enduring legacy.  No, not ol' Hills.

Gen Z loves to meme this one.  It's newly relevant.

[blessingx]

 

Edited yesterday at 03:45 AM by blessingx

[Sechtdamon]

The current world is so similar to pre WW2 era world. Bunch of crazy people elected using populism and false promises. They are getting crazier day by day. They polarise their own people by praising some of them and declaring others as unwanted. Warmongers manipulate them by using their egos.

This shit is derailing so fast I wish there are some "hidden agendas". This shit is going south so fast.

[Dusty Chalk]

Not sure I disagree with this.  I mean, I still hate Trump, but at least no-one in NATO is going to go to war to defend Iran.

Quote

DONE AND DUSTED?
NOT QUITE...

=======================
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
=======================
Regarding Iran's ongoing nuclear weapons programs, the world is a safer place today thanks to Trump and the USAF. Whether you hate him or love Trump (or something in between, if that is possible given today's political landscape), that fact is objectively true.

Iran cannot have nuclear weapons -- yes, plural. Their goals were unwavering. They did not just seek a weapon to destroy Tel Aviv -- they imagined themselves a global nuclear superpower with hundreds and possibly even thousands of nuclear weapons and a massive ballistic missile arsenal to get the job done. Last night's military action knocked that goal back, perhaps permanently.

Iran spent DECADES and probably over half a trillion dollars on their quest for nuclear weapons. That's commitment -- critically, that commitment doesn't go away as a result of one set of airstrikes.

The world is at a crossroads. It is worthwhile to consider the current situation and likely next steps in some depth.

=======================
MILITARY NEXT STEPS - USA
=======================
For the USA, this was NOT a one-off strike. The target package was limited, but highly focused. The mission appears to have been highly successful -- though it is impossible to know because the immediate BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) is very cursory. Too much debris and smoke still obscure the target area to enable a full assessment. In the best circumstances, a full assessment would take days to complete anyway.

What we know as of this hour is that the USAF "did not miss". Maybe one or two bombs were off-target. Maybe there were some malfunctions. Maybe there weren't. By and large, the job was done. Iran's nuclear program is effectively gone -- as for restarting negotiations, there's nothing left to negotiate about.

The media have been reporting on the extensive US Military deployments to the region. However, little energy has been expended on assessing what that means. To simplify that, the US Military has deployed the necessary assets to undertake extensive and intensive, continuing airstrikes that will pummel the Iranian regime.

If Iran responds to this, and surely they will, additional US airstrikes will follow in the next hours and days. There is no reasonable scenario I can foresee, however, that has the USA standing down now after having only achieved the results from these first strikes.

=======================
MILITARY NEXT STEPS - ISRAEL
=======================
Israel will continue its ongoing strikes in Iran, with targeting priorities generally as follows:

1. Ballistic missile stocks, launchers, and ultimately manufacturing capabilities to reduce Iran's ongoing strikes against Israel and the global threat.

2. Iranian air defense assets to continue to clear the skies for ongoing strikes; Israel is well on the way to transforming the skies of Iran and achieving not only air superiority, but full air supremacy.

3. Iran's political leadership with the unstated goal of encouraging regime change, which is the only valid long-term means of ending its nuclear weapons programs.

I expect that Israel and Trump will double down on Iran in the coming days. In other words, this wasn’t a one-off strike.

=======================
MILITARY NEXT STEPS - IRAN
=======================
Iran cannot afford to not respond. In that neighborhood, only power is respected. They have to swagger, attack, and claim victory. They will do that. They will hold press conferences and announce that the US has opened a global war, that we are "drinking from the poisoned chalice".

They will position survival as victory. The global media will go along with that. Future reporting will be akin to the level of reporting on a match between Manchester United and Liverpool.

More seriously, most likely Iran’s response will be:

A) Closing the Straits of Hormuz through small naval boat actions, mines, and ground-launched anti-ship missiles;

Attacking US bases and assets in the region, including navy ships -- all eyes are on US bases in Kuwait;

C) Attempt to assemble a crude “dirty bomb” from whatever remaining radioactive material they have — and there is a lot in their hands, many hundreds of tons of it. If they can pull that together, they will try to launch it at Tel Aviv; and

D) Attempt to develop a global Islamic alliance or coalition to target Western interests in the short term, middle term, and long term.

Of these, the third will be Iran's main focus, but also the most difficult to achieve. Therefore, the first two things to happen will be options A and B, above.

Will it work? NO, in capital letters.

Option A will have a detrimental global effect on oil prices. It will destabilize markets -- significantly. The world will weather that storm, however.

Option B will likely launch. Damage will be done to some infrastructure, but it will prove, ultimately, that Iran really is powerless to defend itself. That's not a good position to be in given that the region respects power above all.

Option C will turn the world community against Iran even more than it already is; the upshot of that, despite the efforts to come to point the finger of blame at America, will be ineffective.

Option D is the most interesting. They will reach out to Pakistan, begging for a covert delivery of a single nuclear weapon. They will try to reestablish leadership among their former proxies. They will try to rally Islamic radicals to their cause. How impactful will that be? Short of Pakistan actually delivering, not very.

The media is saying that Iran will now "activate its sleeper cells inside the USA". Yes, perhaps there is a threat of domestic terrorism. Is that a major threat? No. Will it dominate headlines? Yes, if they can succeed. It is a dice roll and politically, it will solidify America against Iran.

=======================
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
- RUSSIA AND CHINA
=======================
China, not Russia, is the key player that matters now. Russia is on its back foot because of the losses it has suffered in Putin's ill-fated Ukraine War. Thus, there is little Russia can do except make meaningless political-diplomatic gestures.

China is more constrained in architecting its response. Its energy lifeline is through the Arabian Gulf. Iran's expected response will include the closing of the Straits of Hormuz. If that happens, and it likely will, oil prices will rise sharply. This will cause some damage to China's economy. However, this will be assessed as a temporary blip -- not a long-term reality.

Therefore, China will have to reposition itself as a peacemaker. It will view this as an opportunity to establish itself politically-diplomatically on the world stage as an alternative to American power. They will paint this as evidence of an "aggressive" US policy. This will feed into their self-generated narrative that the future will be one of China and the USA as the world's two remaining superpowers.

=======================
DOMESTIC RESPONSE IN USA
=======================
The Democratic Party and the so-called "mainstream media" will debate this as if it is a domestic issue. They will portray this primarily through their usual politically-stained eyeglasses. The "Gang of Eight" on Capitol Hill will engage in fiery political attacks against Trump.

Trump will respond by simply painting the Democrats as having sided with Iran AGAINST America. Which approach sticks? I predict that it will be Trump's position that has long-term traction -- a) most Americans are fed up with politics; and b) most Americans don't have detailed knowledge of international security issues or of domestic political issues. Frankly, the media has utterly failed in their informational role by presenting Washington politics as a zero-sum, polarized game of either being pro-Trump or anti-Trump.

A medal ceremony will follow in the Oval Office for the brave American pilots and flight crews who carried out the mission.

=======================
IS IT NUCLEAR WAR?
=======================
I have already heard this question more times than I care to count. The simple answer is NO. This will not bring World War III, but more bombing is yet to come.

To contemplate a scenario in which World War III results from this is to imagine that Russia or China would kick off Armageddon as a means of defending Iran. That is patently absurd.

Rather, I predict that both will say, “Let’s see how we can use this politically and diplomatically in the international scene in hopes of isolating and condemning America for our own advantage — as for Iran, it has been nice knowing ya.”

=======================
CONCLUSION
=======================
Ultimately, the question comes down to regime change in Iran. Short of that, Iran will renew its quest for nuclear weapons -- though it will take years and still won't work. Achieving regime change in Iran is a tall order, however. Frankly, it is beyond reach in military terms.

You cannot bomb Iran into a better future.

The heroes of the coming days will have to be the Iranian people themselves. I have hope in that -- to imagine that they will not launch a revolution is implausible. They've done it over and over in the past; they've suffered from it greatly. Each time, they failed to achieve a revolution against the Ayatullahs. Each time, if they had Western support, they might have succeeded. Now they have Western support -- it's time to act.

I expect steadily increasing support to Iran's people from the USA and UK in the coming weeks. Those are the two major actors in this.

Despite that it is a tall order, regime change is the only valid strategic end game -- everything else is tactical; it helps but falls short of a lasting solution.

=======================
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
=======================
Thomas Van Hare is a former senior defense security professional and three-time White House appointee. These days, he publishes wargames on Amazon:
-- https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BN2932W9 --

His aviation history YouTube channel is at:
-- https://www.youtube.com/@HistoricWings --

He is the sole author of this review. This review does not reflect any political angle to the Right or Left in either European or American politics, nor the position of the US Government.

 

[mikeymad]

This works too:

 

=======================
CONCLUSION
=======================
Ultimately, the question comes down to regime change in Iran [the USA]. Short of that, Iran  [Trump] will renew its  [his] quest for nuclear weapons [against citizens] -- though it will take years and still won't work. Achieving regime change in Iran [the USA] is a tall order, however. Frankly, it is beyond reach in military terms.